Priorities for the Spanish Presidency of the EU
10.01.02
José Manuel Aguilar de Ben*
The post-Franco party in Spain, now in government, like the post-facist in Italy and the post-comunist in other european states, are becaming increasingly influential in the european construction. They enjoy the recognition and influence at the EU table. The newborn democrats are finding a confortable space in the " democratic deficit" of the EU institutions." More power, less democracy", seem to suit well the post-dictatorial parties in Europe. That explains the motto choosen by the Spanish government for its presidency of the Union in the first semester of 2002, which was launched at the Laeken summit: More Europe.
Yet, more Europe, is not only about EU presence in world affairs, about the Euro effect, or about expansion and more integration. More Europe is also about more democracy, which will only be addressed by the Convention and the IGC around 2004. It remain to be seen by then whether, "more Europe", also means more democracy and legitimacy, for the post-dictatorial parties of Europe.
To understand the priorities of the Spanish Presidency and the abitity to perform and materilise them, the clue is understanding the nature of the spanish government, its "raison d'être". The populist party of Mr. Aznar, now hold a solid mayority in the national parliament, thanks to its promise to end terrorism, which has not been eliminated, and to the promise to achieve full employment, which has not only not been fulfilled, but remains the largest unemployment rate in the Union. But Mr. Aznar´s government has other characteristics. It is the first conservative government democraticaly elected in Spain in more than 60 years since the "uncivil" war of 1936-39. Apart from the 14 years of socialist government and the last 5 years of right wing government, all the other Spanish rigth wing goverments were during Spain long dictartorship after World War II. That legacy is still very present in the autocratic style, and often in the policies of the current government. Mr. Aznar names and discharge all officers of his administration without any exam or consent by the Parliament or the Senate, which has produce a significant number of scandals related to appointments and resignations, some of them connected with the control of the media and others with the privatization of Spanish public utilities. More recently, ill advice investments and state aid in Argentina and other Latin-american economies, rather than in Spain and in the rest of the EU, are being a source of embarrassement and concern for the government.
Mr Aznar also hold the presidency of the International Reformist Center, which includes most Cristian-Democratic parties in Europe and around the world. The Spanish experiment seems to light up other political experiences out of dictatorships. With that background, the populist government is presiding for the first time the rotating EU presidency, the two previous ones held by Spain being under socialists goverments, which also negotiated Spain entrance into the EC 16 years ago. Further more, Mr. Aznar has stablished in recent months, a good, albeit dependent, relationship with the US presidency of Mr. Bush, which might imply the Mr. Bush may try to force his agenda in Europe not only via Mr. Blair for military affairs, but also via Mr. Aznar for economic, social and judiciary affairs, as well as for partnership in the upcomming UN world summits on financing development in Monterrey, and on environment, at Rio+10, in Johannesburg.
The priority of priorities of the spanish presidency, Mr. Aznar has declare in its presentation with Mr. Prodi, is the global fight againts terrorism. The theme that gave the populist party the last mayority in Parliament, and is now, after september 11, in tune with US policies, but which is by no means the obviuos priority across Europe. Spain will seek to enforce the "Euroorder", to promote more police co-operation and to move towards a common European judicial space, by making Eurojust operational.This implies reforms at national levels, that in some countries will have a hard sell. Mr. Aznar backed an EU extradition treaty with the US, dispite the application of the death penalty in the US and the use of military tribunals to try terrorist crimes.
The other Spanish priorities are EU enlargement, more liberalizing economic reforms to strenghen the Euro, the debate on the future of Europe, the space of liberty, security and justice, and the Euro- mediterrenean cooperation.
Not untill after Mr. Aznar's first sppeech addressed to the European Parliament will some details of the priorities be known, but given the secretive style of this PM, policies other then those alrealdy elaborated by the European Commission, may only be known at the different EU Council of Ministers. The "wait and see" actitute of this Presidency, will mean that very likely, other EU member governments would be able to impose their views in most european policies.
On the EU enlargement front, these next six months are of utmost importance.The Spanish Presidency is to carry on with the negotiations with candidate countries that wish to join the EU, and for an early entrance of the new applicant countries, but recognises that it will be difficult to have the process completed by the december 2002, at the end of the Danish Presidency. Spain has been entrusted with the negotiations of the chapters on agricultural policy, regional aid, and the budget. With regards to agriculture Spain suggests phasing in subsidies to farmers over a 5 to 10 years period. Spain will continue to uphold his rigths on EU structural and cohesion funds, despite the needs of new members. The aggregated GDP of the 10 candidates being the equivalent to that of The Netherlands alone, their integration will not have a mayor impact the EU economy.
The economic policies will take center stage at the European Council in Barcelona, to follow the initiatives taken in Lisbon. In addition to the following up on the introduction of the Euro, Spain will press for further liberalizations in strategic sectors like telecomunications and energy, and will advocate in favor of more structural reforms as a means to strenghen the Euro and of achieving a real single market of products and factors. Spain support the completion of the process of privatizations, deregulation and open competion, paying attention to the Commission report on the electricity and gas sectors. Barcelona will try to rescue not only the spirit of Lisbon, but also the policies for a knowledge-based society by 2010, initiated at the Stockholm summit.As for the agricultural chapter, it is unlikely that CAP reform would be discused this semester, because of French elections. Food security will be in the agenda with the launching of the EU Food Safety Agengy. Spain will support the process of Luxembourg, with the annual action plans for employment but will probably not keep up with the social impetus of the Belgiam presidency. It will propose measures to stimulate growth in the Eurozone. Spain will oppose, like the European Central Bank, the German request for flexibilization of the Growth and Stabilization Pact and will mantain its doctrine of balance budget and cero deficit. On fiscal matters, the presidency will seek to adopt the EC Fiscal directive and the process of simplification of the VAT, but will not support a new EU tax to finance the Commission. It will press for cooperation among different fiscal agencies. Spain will continue to support the development of an efficient WTO structure for world commerce, but no words so far for a ILO standards link. Spain, like the IMF, the OECD and the Commission, does not expect a rapid recovery of the world economy in the first half of 2002.
It will fall under the Spanish Presidency to introduce and develop the new strategies for a pan-european sustainable development policy. This is a task long overdue for the EU, to fulfil the Agenda 21 set at the UN summits and the UN Commission on Sustainable Development. Spain is not well placed to initiate these policies, having not even a national commission on sustainable development, but the Spanish Presidency with the help of the Commission and the other european countries more engage in sustainable development policies, will carry on the mandate. The threefold dimension of sustainable development policies: economic, social and environamental, are quite difficult to stablize democratically, not only at national level, but also at local one. It will require a post European Constitution task to establish truly democratic european sustainable development policies. Small countries like Costa Rica, have been able to have a consistent sustainable development policy only by making it, its main national economic program. China has a sustainable development policy elaborated by central state planning. In some EU countries, Agendas 21 are having more susccess at local levels than at national level, and it remains a great challange to develop integreted european sustainable development policies.The Spanish Presidency has yet to define its position, as part of the troika, for the UN Summit on Development and Environment, Rio+10, to be held later in 2002 during the Danish presidency.
Strictly on environment policies, for which the European Environment Agengy has been critizising Spain, the Spanish presidency will focus on a new EU directive on environment responsability, on the adoption of The Hague biodiversity Convention and the Cartagena Protocol on biosecurity. On climate change it will seek the ratification of the Kioto Protocol, will propose a program on climate change, and a directive on emisions trade.
During its presidency of the EU, Spain will have the responsability of coordinating the EU position at the UN Summit on Financing Development in Monterrey, México. This is an area in which Spain is clearly not yet ready to lead Europe. Spain has been lagging far behind the objective of the 0'7% of GDP in ODA. While The Netherlands and the nordic countries are now above the 1% in official development assistance, and the EU adopted the 0'7% as a target of the Union at the UN summit Rio + 5, Europe will have to take the lead in Monterrey, since the US favours direct foreign investment, and tecnological transfers rather than development assistance. This is an area in which the British government is now ready for a fresh new approach, and will have to convince the Spanish Presidency, as well as major international donors and agencies, the World Bank, UNDP, the DAC of the OECD, for a mayor overhaul in the north-south relations.
The Euro-Mediterranean cooperation is a priority of the Spanish presidency, with the purpose of bringing North African countries and the Eastern Mediterranean closer to european economic standards and political viability. Those economies need to create 40m jobs over the next ten years to absorb young people entering the workforce which threatens southern Europe illegal inmigration. Spain will launch the proposal to create an European Bank for the Mediterranean. But the Valencia conference will not focus specifically on the Israeli-Palestinian confrontation.
An Euro/Latin-American summit in Madrid will reinforce the economic and political links between the two areas, and would analyse trends towards a free trade zone, as well as the evolution of regional integration in Mercosur, and other Andean Pact, Central America and Caribbean areas. Mexico may put the EU-NAFTA relations in the agenda.
The UN Summit on Ageing, that will take place in Madrid during the Spanish Presidency, will adopt an action plan that is still under consideration. An EU-Rusia summit will sick to define new strategic interests and a meeting with Canada and the Asean will likely take place during the semester.
On inmigration, Spain objectives are the armonization of asylum and refugees laws and the revision of the Dublin Convention, plus an action plan againts irregular inmigration and its traffic.
In the security agenda, a coordination of the different european secret services, following the reestructuring of the Spanish one, will be worked out to protect the Shengen space, and to support the new european military forces of rapid deployment. In may, Spain will oversee an exercise of the EU Forces of Rapid Intervention and will seek to institutionalize the european defense policy. Europe will be ready this year to intervine alone in peace operation. Endowing the Common Foreign and Security Policy with real effectiviness, will be a major challange for this semester.
It is too early to define what will be the spanish agenda for the G-8 meeting in Ottawa next june, but Spain will carry on the mandate that the EU Summit of Seville will stablish. By then, likely, the alternative proglobalisation and antiglobalisation movements, would have had somethings to say, that the G-8 could consider. Spain, like other EU national governments, sees the Tobin tax as not enforsable. The international financial system reform will likely be on the G-8 agenda. But Spain has now lost the opportunity to lead the european agenda for the IMF reform, by not pushing for a new Bretton Woods conference, that given the majority of the EU members states cuotas in the IMF/WB, could have been summonned, even somewhere in Europe. The EU-US transatlantic relations are certently in the agenda of the Spanish Presidency, as is coorperation in fighting terrorism wordlwide, or a redefinition and new vision of our common identity. No doubt that the normal performance of the Euro, its acceptance as a new international reserve currency, and the relative stability of the european economy, will give the Spanish Presidency an opportunity to consolidate the Union as a mayor leader in world affairs, should the european leaders, and in this semester the Spanish one, have the talent and ability to exercise it.
The last of the priorities of the Spanish presidency, which should not be the least, is the debate on the future of Europe, the follow up the Laeken Declaration, the gathering of the Convention under the presidency of Mr. Giscard d'Estaing, the simplifications of the EU treaties, the adaptation of the Fundamental Rights Charter to make it enforsable, and the adoption of a Constitution for the Union, with an open democratic proccess and a direct election of the future european leaders. The spanish presidency support the dialogue but has yet to define its clear position on the european constitutional process as well as the role of the civil society. This semester, as Mr. Prodi put it, should be decisive for the enlargement of the EU and the future of the Union.
* Presidente del Instituto Norte Sur y miembro del Consejo Mundial de la Asamblea Global de los Pueblos